I thought so. So how does it work? Well, matched betting only works when a free bet is available. First things first, you need to find a free bet — most bookies offer these on sign up. A lay bet is simply saying I think team X will not win thus covering a loss and draw.
You now have all three outcomes covered. Of course, you need to calculate the relevant stake to lay whilst your amount at risk — called the lay liability — is higher than the stake as it needs to cover potential losses because of how betting exchanges work. Today, Kilmarnock host Dundee United. Your free bet, which in this instance will be via SkyBet, is to back the home side i. I think Kilmarnock will win. The odds are 2. You can lay the bet i. I think Kilmarnock will fail to win with Smarkets at 2.
The only other thing to consider is that most free bets require you to place a qualifying bet. Follow the same back and lay process as above and you will make a very minimal loss — usually pence — which will be more than covered in the second bet. Why would a bookie do that? Price boosts, however, are intended to pull in new money and are only on handpicked events meaning the industry will remain in a healthy position.
This example explains how it is done:. In the opening Premier League fixtures, Everton travel to face Tottenham with a current price of 4. You can lay against an Everton win i. Spurs to win or draw with the Betfair Exchange at 4. At number one on our list of the best football betting strategies is the Kelly Criterion method.
Thankfully, you can follow the same steps for football betting. Based on the combination of actual probability and odds on offer the Kelly Criterion method will tell you how much of your bankroll to stake. The bigger the variation between the probability and the odds, the more you will stake. Remember, with this strategy you are only betting where positive value exists. If your overlay comes back as a negative then leave the bet well alone! For those who get headaches from formulas such as the above, the stake, put simply, is the difference between the probability of winning and losing as determined by you.
Just like any system the Kelly Criterion has its drawbacks, and these are quite pronounced in football betting. Firstly, using the example above, it often asks you to invest a significant amount of your bankroll on a bet. Here, we look at the betting systems that are not sensible or profitable long-term investments of time or money.
The Martingale Method basically entails a bettor doubling their stake immediately following any losing even-money bet, thereby allowing the first win to recover all previous losses. Anyone who has invested time and money in sports betting understands that no matter how sound your research and analysis has been, a series of losing bets by account of bad luck is entirely possible. The reality is a lot different.
Stay clear of the of the Martingale Method when wagering on football — the only way it would ever work is if you had infinite amounts of money. This is impossible of course. Among the three possible outcomes to football matches — win, loss or draw — one often gets overlooked, the draw. The Fibonacci Method is based on a mathematical sequence where each new number equals the total of the previous two.
As with the Martingale Method, Fibonacci thinking relies on continually increasing your stake to cover your previous losses. It can. But the mathematical principle behind the Fibonacci approach is a lot more measured than simply doubling your stake each time.
With some statistical analysis as your back-up, this is certainly a method that would be worth testing the success of over time. Sign up for our free matched betting course via this link. Other than that, a betting system based on proven mathematical principles is a good starting point.
But which staking plan is the Thank you very much. I think I will limit myself to 2. But its different when games are being played at same time because one anomalous set of games with very low hit-rate can make me almost bankrupt. I have to implement more cautious approach.
I have one simple question regarding betting according to percentage of betting bank. However, I have problem when many games are played at same time like in lower English leagues tonight or on Saturdays. In previous situations I always had profit or small loses when betting on many games played at same time so I continued to risk. My question is — is this too risky?
Should my stakes when there are many games at same time be lower, eg. Because if one day or night goes wrong I could lose everything I have earned in long time. What is your suggestion, how big stakes should I put when there are 15 or 20 games at same time without endangering betting bank too much?
Hi Stefan, the size of your stakes really depends on the hit rate you are expecting. Here are two articles which may help you:. What may also be of great help to you is my course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting A whole chapter of the course is dedicated to Risk Control. Though, i have a question about the fixed win strategy, and i would be happy if you could elaborate a bit. Eventually those low odds are going to catch up. I will also take your question and think about how to address it via articles, tutorials, and maybe even courses and Excel calculators.
This is certainly an issue which comes up quite a lot. Hello soccerwidow. Please help me! Nice work! You could also try using your calculated winning percentage as a base instead of fixed profit. According to my back testing, this method allows the bank to be more stable than fixed profit. I agree with you, by choosing right staking plan, you can save yourself from a big loss and there will be win-win.
Great I look forward to the next article. Yes, we adjust ratchet. However, many people play at odds around 1. Name Required. Mail will not be published Required. Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. You can also subscribe without commenting. Image: Ninell Shutterstock. Experienced live betting punters will know this. But in-play betting offers a way to exploit these occurrences in a game.
If a team is pressuring heavily and looking like scoring, then you can utilise certain bet types to take advantage of this. Minute markets are one example. You could, for example, bet on a goal to be scored in the next 10 minutes, if a team is looking like scoring, but you know that team is likely to relieve the pressure in the second half, or is unlikely to go on to win the match.
Minute markets are available for things like goals, cards, corners and many more things, so watch the game closely and you can profit from using these bet types. The most used and well known in-play strategy is to utilise the cash out function. Any online betting site worth its salt will have a cash out function now, which can be used on any in-play fixture and most bet types.
We touched on using the cash out feature earlier, which can be used to close a bet early and walk away with the profit. Of course, the profit is based on different factors, like the time remaining and the odds of other events occurring which would cause the bet to lose.
Many punters like to use the function to minimise risk and walk away with smaller profits. For example, one approach is to use your research to find games where teams usually score or concede early or in the first half and to bet on over 1. Most betting sites have partial cash outs now too. Utilising the partial cash out, in this instance you could cash out the profit, while leaving the rest of the bet to play. Again, this is a way of minimising risk.
However, almost all the best football betting sites offer some kind of welcome bonus and you can still make them work to your advantage. Simply signing up and depositing at a bookmaker is usually enough to get the welcome bonus. In the past, many punters would have accounts at all the top betting sites, simply to get their hands on the welcome bonuses.
Some bookmakers, like NetBet , offer a standard funds type bonus. Sounds simple? Unfortunately, most bookies insist that you roll-over the funds at least 3 times. This should be no problem for smart punters, but be aware that the initial deposit is at risk with any welcome bonus.
There are also many other types of sign-up offers that could make you some profit. Some operators will offer free bets, such as the Paddy Power welcome bonus, or there are other unique types, such as the Blacktype. A good mathematical mind is another great attribute to help with successful footie wagers.
As well as enabling you to quickly work out value on the fly, there are a couple of football betting systems that rely almost entirely on a mathematical methodology. The Kelly Criterion is a system that will work out the optimal bet size based on the value offered from a bet. If you want to go deeper in to this idea, you can read more on the Kelly Criterion on Wikipedia. There are two versions of the method; full and fractional.
The first is the most risky since it applies the full suggested amount while the latter uses a fraction of the recommended amount. This is taking the formula we used earlier to work out value a step further by working out the optimal amount to bet on top. To work out what percentage of your bankroll to bet, you can use the following formula:. Check out the picture above to see the formula put into action. Note that the probability is your subjective probability and not the probability ascribed by the odds.
To apply this formula, we must always convert the odds to decimal, which in this case would be 5. Since Arsenal have many players injured and are in a bad run of form, we fancy Crystal Palace to have a better chance of winning, more like a 0. This means the probability of failure is 0. Taking a fractional approach to this system allows a punter to bet a percentage of the optimum bet recommended by the kelly formula.
This approach is obviously more risk averse and helps to protect the budget, but the returns are of course smaller too. The percentage of the optimal bet amount staked is completely up to the punter and the best plus to this approach is the protection against variance and shock results.
This is a well-known one that has come under lots of scrutiny in recent years. Simply put, the Martingale system is doubling up the previous stake on each losing bet. This is because you would need an extremely high bankroll to start off with and also because betting limits of certain bets may prevent you betting the amount the system requires.
If you have a knack for accurately judging perceived value then value betting is an approach that should always pay off in the long run. Getting value from bets is a key strategy that successful punters employ to make sure they turn a profit over time.
Always be on the look out for bets where you think the bookie has made a pricing mistake and take advantage. In-play betting has revolutionised gambling on the sport and many successful punters bet exclusively live. The advantages are obvious; you can watch a game and draw better conclusions on what outcomes are likely to occur. Betting on an event that you are watching live can help improve your chances of being successful. In football betting, nothing is certain.
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