pro football betting strategies

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Below, we analyze the Bayer Leverkusen-FC Augsburg sports betting odds and lines, while providing Bundesliga betting tips and predictions around this matchup. Bet now! Lines last updated Saturday at p. Look for a defensive slog at BayArena. New to sports betting?

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Pro football betting strategies

Correctly predict the winning team Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting. While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.

From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding. For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog.

Pretty straightforward stuff. Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog. NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i. In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging. The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.

So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt. Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. For instance, say the Seahawks opens as -5 favorites against the Rams.

The public is in love with Seattle in this particular game and has bet the Seahawks heavily. The sharps have gone the other way and have taken the Rams to cover. Instead of the line moving in favor of the public or not moving at all, major sportsbooks that take plenty of high volume action move the line to -4 before game time.

The rest of the market follows. If we can catch the move quickly, we can chase the steam and perhaps grab -5 before the rest of the market adjusts. However, even with the full point move and market adjustment, -4 is often still worth taking due to the significance of the situation.

The bigger markets will garner a lot more attention from management due to a large number of bets coming in, and that means sharper lines. Focusing on smaller betting markets is one of the best NFL football betting strategies at least based on our experience at SafestBettingsits.

Some of our favorite markets to attack are player and team props. These markets are often posted with little research behind them and are geared towards recreational bettors who naturally want to root for their favorite players. Although, both sides of these bets often have juice. They can be extremely profitable for the average sports bettor when correct NFL betting strategy is applied. Bettors have little reason to fund accounts at professional level sportsbooks with high limits as they start their NFL betting career.

Their lines, across the board, are much sharper than those focused on public bettors or squares. Sportsbooks like Bovada Sportsbook and BetOnline Sportsbook offer much lower limits, but they cater to recreational gamblers and still offer tons of different markets, including props, futures, and live betting. This allows bettors to get better prices on underdogs and unders and will in general offer softer lines that shops that take larger bets. Halftime betting is one market bettors should also consider.

There two ways to look at betting halftime lines. One is to look at sportsbooks like Pinnacle Sports and see if any of your recreational sportsbooks have lines that are off compared to Pinnacle. Line shopping will be key here. If you can spot inefficiencies, bet them. Another is to watch the games and get a handle on how each team has looked. There are many times during a half that a team is outplayed, but they end up leading, simply due to some bad luck or fluke plays.

Underdogs also have some value when it comes to betting halftime lines, especially if they perform well in the first half. The betting public assumes the favorite incorrectly will bounce-back in the second half and play dominantly. Betting action may skew the line in favor and add value to underdogs. The amount bet on NFL proposition bets is a fraction of what sportsbooks receive on sides, totals, and moneylines. They will occasionally pull props, but most of the line movements on these markets are automated.

With a little research, bettors can find edges in these markets that are not heavily researched before they are posted.

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And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding. For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL.

Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. Pretty straightforward stuff. Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog. NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game. Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores.

Some of them are based in live betting, i. In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt. Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents.

Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging. The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt. Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research.

Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL? Many coaches have no issues doing the same in the college game. Home underdogs and more specifically, double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been particularly successful. Double-digit spreads, regardless of if the underdog is home also provide an opportunity to bet underdogs.

Nor should they relentlessly bet underdogs without having solid reasoning behind their wagers. They have a long history in the industry but have truly come on in the last couple of years to become a leader in sports betting. Timely payouts are something worth noting.

Sportsbetting is the top betting site in the industry and easily the most professional. They offer competitive odds in all sports and tons of NFL markets, from propositions to live betting. There are few better opportunities in larger markets, such as NFL sides, totals, and money lines than reverse NFL line movement situations.

Various NFL line movement strategies are one of the most profitable betting strategies across many sports. Reverse line movement occurs when the public is heavily invested on side or total, but the sharp bettors have gone the opposite direction. Instead of the line moving in response to the massive public betting action or simply not moving at all — it moves in favor of the sharp action.

For instance, say the Seahawks opens as -5 favorites against the Rams. The public is in love with Seattle in this particular game and has bet the Seahawks heavily. The sharps have gone the other way and have taken the Rams to cover. Instead of the line moving in favor of the public or not moving at all, major sportsbooks that take plenty of high volume action move the line to -4 before game time.

The rest of the market follows. If we can catch the move quickly, we can chase the steam and perhaps grab -5 before the rest of the market adjusts. However, even with the full point move and market adjustment, -4 is often still worth taking due to the significance of the situation.

The bigger markets will garner a lot more attention from management due to a large number of bets coming in, and that means sharper lines. Focusing on smaller betting markets is one of the best NFL football betting strategies at least based on our experience at SafestBettingsits.

Some of our favorite markets to attack are player and team props. These markets are often posted with little research behind them and are geared towards recreational bettors who naturally want to root for their favorite players. Although, both sides of these bets often have juice. They can be extremely profitable for the average sports bettor when correct NFL betting strategy is applied. Bettors have little reason to fund accounts at professional level sportsbooks with high limits as they start their NFL betting career.

Their lines, across the board, are much sharper than those focused on public bettors or squares. Sportsbooks like Bovada Sportsbook and BetOnline Sportsbook offer much lower limits, but they cater to recreational gamblers and still offer tons of different markets, including props, futures, and live betting. This allows bettors to get better prices on underdogs and unders and will in general offer softer lines that shops that take larger bets.

Halftime betting is one market bettors should also consider.

15 2 BETTING ODDS

A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game. Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i. In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet. According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging. The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.

Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL? Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five. Think the Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.

That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. Focusing on smaller betting markets is one of the best NFL football betting strategies at least based on our experience at SafestBettingsits. Some of our favorite markets to attack are player and team props. These markets are often posted with little research behind them and are geared towards recreational bettors who naturally want to root for their favorite players.

Although, both sides of these bets often have juice. They can be extremely profitable for the average sports bettor when correct NFL betting strategy is applied. Bettors have little reason to fund accounts at professional level sportsbooks with high limits as they start their NFL betting career. Their lines, across the board, are much sharper than those focused on public bettors or squares.

Sportsbooks like Bovada Sportsbook and BetOnline Sportsbook offer much lower limits, but they cater to recreational gamblers and still offer tons of different markets, including props, futures, and live betting. This allows bettors to get better prices on underdogs and unders and will in general offer softer lines that shops that take larger bets.

Halftime betting is one market bettors should also consider. There two ways to look at betting halftime lines. One is to look at sportsbooks like Pinnacle Sports and see if any of your recreational sportsbooks have lines that are off compared to Pinnacle. Line shopping will be key here. If you can spot inefficiencies, bet them. Another is to watch the games and get a handle on how each team has looked. There are many times during a half that a team is outplayed, but they end up leading, simply due to some bad luck or fluke plays.

Underdogs also have some value when it comes to betting halftime lines, especially if they perform well in the first half. The betting public assumes the favorite incorrectly will bounce-back in the second half and play dominantly. Betting action may skew the line in favor and add value to underdogs. The amount bet on NFL proposition bets is a fraction of what sportsbooks receive on sides, totals, and moneylines.

They will occasionally pull props, but most of the line movements on these markets are automated. With a little research, bettors can find edges in these markets that are not heavily researched before they are posted. It would also be possible to get bet similar props at multiple sportsbooks and get several thousand dollars down on these markets. Halftime lines and alternate point spreads are also areas that bettors may want to consider attacking as well.

Even though these are markets are highly juiced, their recreational focus and automated odds make them excellent targets for savvy bettors who take the time to handicap them. A dirty secret of online sportsbooks is that they almost all lose money on propositions because of the sharp bettors that come in and attack these soft lines. There is a lot of opportunities in live betting games, both when it comes to line shopping and finding profitable bets on your own.

NFL live betting and propositions are the two areas where bettors are most often limited. Thus, it pays to learn and know when to apply various NFL betting strategies to maximize betting profits. Please wait

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Minute markets are one example. You could, for example, bet on a goal to be scored in the next 10 minutes, if a team is looking like scoring, but you know that team is likely to relieve the pressure in the second half, or is unlikely to go on to win the match. Minute markets are available for things like goals, cards, corners and many more things, so watch the game closely and you can profit from using these bet types. The most used and well known in-play strategy is to utilise the cash out function.

Any online betting site worth its salt will have a cash out function now, which can be used on any in-play fixture and most bet types. We touched on using the cash out feature earlier, which can be used to close a bet early and walk away with the profit. Of course, the profit is based on different factors, like the time remaining and the odds of other events occurring which would cause the bet to lose. Many punters like to use the function to minimise risk and walk away with smaller profits.

For example, one approach is to use your research to find games where teams usually score or concede early or in the first half and to bet on over 1. Most betting sites have partial cash outs now too. Utilising the partial cash out, in this instance you could cash out the profit, while leaving the rest of the bet to play.

Again, this is a way of minimising risk. However, almost all the best football betting sites offer some kind of welcome bonus and you can still make them work to your advantage. Simply signing up and depositing at a bookmaker is usually enough to get the welcome bonus. In the past, many punters would have accounts at all the top betting sites, simply to get their hands on the welcome bonuses.

Some bookmakers, like NetBet , offer a standard funds type bonus. Sounds simple? Unfortunately, most bookies insist that you roll-over the funds at least 3 times. This should be no problem for smart punters, but be aware that the initial deposit is at risk with any welcome bonus. There are also many other types of sign-up offers that could make you some profit.

Some operators will offer free bets, such as the Paddy Power welcome bonus, or there are other unique types, such as the Blacktype. A good mathematical mind is another great attribute to help with successful footie wagers. As well as enabling you to quickly work out value on the fly, there are a couple of football betting systems that rely almost entirely on a mathematical methodology.

The Kelly Criterion is a system that will work out the optimal bet size based on the value offered from a bet. If you want to go deeper in to this idea, you can read more on the Kelly Criterion on Wikipedia. There are two versions of the method; full and fractional.

The first is the most risky since it applies the full suggested amount while the latter uses a fraction of the recommended amount. This is taking the formula we used earlier to work out value a step further by working out the optimal amount to bet on top. To work out what percentage of your bankroll to bet, you can use the following formula:.

Check out the picture above to see the formula put into action. Note that the probability is your subjective probability and not the probability ascribed by the odds. To apply this formula, we must always convert the odds to decimal, which in this case would be 5.

Since Arsenal have many players injured and are in a bad run of form, we fancy Crystal Palace to have a better chance of winning, more like a 0. This means the probability of failure is 0. Taking a fractional approach to this system allows a punter to bet a percentage of the optimum bet recommended by the kelly formula. This approach is obviously more risk averse and helps to protect the budget, but the returns are of course smaller too. The percentage of the optimal bet amount staked is completely up to the punter and the best plus to this approach is the protection against variance and shock results.

This is a well-known one that has come under lots of scrutiny in recent years. Simply put, the Martingale system is doubling up the previous stake on each losing bet. This is because you would need an extremely high bankroll to start off with and also because betting limits of certain bets may prevent you betting the amount the system requires.

If you have a knack for accurately judging perceived value then value betting is an approach that should always pay off in the long run. Getting value from bets is a key strategy that successful punters employ to make sure they turn a profit over time. Always be on the look out for bets where you think the bookie has made a pricing mistake and take advantage. In-play betting has revolutionised gambling on the sport and many successful punters bet exclusively live.

The advantages are obvious; you can watch a game and draw better conclusions on what outcomes are likely to occur. Betting on an event that you are watching live can help improve your chances of being successful. In football betting, nothing is certain. Employ the same bank roll management and value betting strategies and know that the variance will even out over time. What is most important is that you take your time to research, educate yourself and become experienced in accurately working out true value and when bookies have made pricing mistakes.

These are the main proponents of the best football betting systems and always will be. Sometimes the maximum bet is limited by the bookies for prices that are boosted. However, there are countless opportunities each week. If you put the effort, you will certainly find enough games where the arbitrage is possible thanks to the football price boosts. The best website for following price boosts and other bookmaker offers is Profit Maximiser.

Another type of promotion you will often see are the so-called refunds. As the name suggests, instead of losing you will get your wager back in certain cases. A good example of that would be the classic football refund offer if a game finishes A lot of bookies will give your money back if you placed a bet on another correct score. This is probably the most common example, but you will be able to find plenty of different promotions that will bring your bet back under certain circumstances.

This often provides great opportunities to find some positive expected value. The first step would be to find a correct score option different from where the odds of the bookie and the lay odds on a betting exchange are close. Place your bet that qualifies for the promotion at the bookie and lay the same outcome in the betting exchange. The next step would be to place another lay bet, this time on the correct score.

The key here is that the odds are low enough which creates an opportunity to win. Also, you should place an underlay bet, which is similar to the standard laying with one big difference. You aim at being break even if your lay bet on the exchange wins and get a huge profit if the bet at the bookie wins. The same principle applies to all refund offers. You have to find solid odds for the back option at the bookie and the lay at the betting exchange first.

Then check the lay price for the outcome that could be refunded. As you can see in my previous example of profitable strategies, using the services of a betting exchange is essential. It gives you the flexibility to back or lay various outcomes, trade live, and much more. The biggest betting exchange out there is Betfair and it offers the highest number of markets, a lot of liquidity, and tons of opportunities to make money.

A good example of a football strategy you can use on Betfair is called Laying the Draw. However, there are still opportunities to make money with low risk. As the name suggests, you will be laying the draw in certain football matches. For a start, you have to select a game where one of the teams is a clear favorite to win, usually the home team.

Then, the first thing you do is lay the draw. Your intention is not simply to wait for the game to end and take profits. You can secure a win much earlier or take a tiny loss depending on the way the match is unfolding. Usually, the favorite will be ahead at some point and this is when the price for a draw will skyrocket. You will be able to back it at much higher odds compared to the lay price you took before the game. This will guarantee a profitable outcome no matter what.

Of course, sometimes there will be no goals until the th minute. In such cases, you could back the draw at smaller odds and take a loss. In such cases, you usually should wait up to the th minute mark and see how it goes. Should the underdog is ahead by two goals or more, you will be able to secure a huge profit by backing the draw at a large price. If the underdog is still ahead by one goal only, it becomes a bit tricky.

You could risk it and hope they hold on. Alternatively, you could back the draw at a low price and take a small loss. The strategy is really simple and profitable, if you follow a couple of important rules:. The good news is that experience helps a lot when you lay the draws and it should become easier to find good opportunities. They including trading and also value betting systems.

They have all been proven to work over a number of years for many users. Click here to read more. A lot of people bet on various sports with the hope of making money. Read the article to understand how to make money gambling! There are lots of great betting system reviews on the internet just now.

These are informative articles that let you see the pros and cons of different approaches. However, will you read the right ones? How will you know which ones to trust and which to take with a pinch of salt? Unlike most of the other pages, this is NOT an affiliate review. The big question, is it worth buying?

Read my review to find out more. The big question, does this trading system work? This Betfair strategy is published by Home Business Direct.